Many changes in F1 2025 already feel like things were always this way. Lewis Hamilton driving in red, names like Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Isack Hadjar, and Ollie Bearman as part of motorsport's elite, and no Daniel Ricciardo in sight are all old hat. And there's the Silverstone-based team, Aston Martin, struggling to break the top 10, with their champion driver pointless seven rounds into the season. Yet just two years ago, the team and Fernando Alonso were podium regulars.
We can trace this transformation of becoming midfield strugglers to technical missteps, late-arriving infrastructure, and a strategic decision to prioritize their 2026 campaign. And, yes, there's also an argument about the two drivers not living up to expectations.
Of course, with aerodynamic guru Adrian Newey now part of the team that races in green, hopes for the future are high. But how did they get here, and can Lawrence Stroll's team rival McLaren, Red Bull, and Mercedes as possible Constructors' Championship winners in the 2020s?
Aston Martin's 2023 Momentum
Aston Martin emerged as a surprise podium contender in 2023 by entering the season with a ground-effect concept to change their fortunes. Vaulting from P7 in the 2022 standings with just 55 points, Alonso scored six top-three finishes from 2023's first eight rounds.
Their AMR23's downforce package and stable aerodynamic platform coincided with Alonso's arrival to deadly effect. Lance Stroll in the sister car grabbed points more often than not, too, and Aston looked to be F1's third-best team behind the established Red Bull-Mercedes rivalry.
This success was short-lived, however. F1's development race is seldom easy to spot, but Aston Martin's fall from grace happened alongside McLaren's improvements. The podium trips nearly vanished once the European season reached full swing, as the team opted to bring incremental upgrades when available.
McLaren, on the other hand, brought an upgrade many in the paddock called a B-spec car for Silverstone. Their fortunes changed in an instant. Challenging for pole position and picking up P2 trophies at nearly every race, the Woking team was reborn. They entered the British GP with 29 points to Aston's 175. After scoring 273 points in the remaining 13 rounds, they leapfrogged Aston Martin to P4 in the standings. Alonso and Stroll scored 105 points in that same period.
A Familiar Look
We can go back further and find a comparable trend to 2023. 2020 predated the Aston Martin name change, but the team was already under Stroll's control. Racing Point entered the year with a car significantly quicker than their 2019 challenger and was suddenly picking up points finishes with both drivers. However, it wasn't long before the name 'Tracing Point' arose.
Racing Point's RP20 looked like the dominant Mercedes W10 from 2019, and other teams didn't wait long to protest. Although Racing Point claimed they hadn't done anything wrong, the FIA eventually docked them 15 points from their championship tally.
Their brake ducts were a direct copy of Mercedes, and a €400,000 fine came their way. With McLaren finishing just seven points above them, that also cost them P3 in the standings and millions in prize money.
Although Sergio Perez won the crazy Sakhir GP and claimed P2 in Turkey's wet race, the car development followed a similar path to 2023. Early results looked promising, but performance dropped over time, with subsequent seasons continuing the slide. And though 2023's AMR23 didn't have the same illegality protests as the 2020 RP20, it did resemble Red Bull's 2022 RB18.
Red Bull's previous aerodynamic head, Dan Fallows, joined the team in 2022. Though it was too late to adjust the 2022 car too much, Fallows designed the AMR23 that took that early-season glory. With teams outside Red Bull slow to adapt to the reintroduction of ground-effect aerodynamics, every advantage would help. Fallows knew how Red Bull designed their 2022 entry and would've utilized that knowledge for his new employer.
Aston Martin's Future Hopes
Someone had to answer why Aston Martin went from 280 points and glory in 2023 to no trophies and 94 points in 2024. That person, unsurprisingly, was Fallows, who the team moved to non-F1 projects for 2025. With the high-profile signing of Adrian Newey, the hope would be that Newey could sprinkle his aerodynamic magic on the team.
After the Tracing Point fiasco and Fallows' RB18-inspired designs, Aston Martin looked to have learned their lesson. Much like copying the exam answers of the smartest kid in school might help in the short term, a lack of conceptual understanding hurts over time.
There is no question that Newey, who boasts 26 championship titles, knows the fundamentals of his business. However, teams design their 2025 cars in 2024, so Aston won't feel Newey's impact until 2026.
Another indicator of Aston Martin's long-term plans is the in-house wind tunnel at their state-of-the-art AMR Technology Campus in Silverstone. The team previously relied on Mercedes' wind tunnel, whose modelling didn't directly align with their cars. Coming online in March 2025, the facility, much like Newey; can't impact the 2025 car.
The Honda power unit deal is the third pillar of Aston Martin's 2026 plans. A common belief in the sport is that becoming a 'works' team (the engine manufacturer's direct project) is key to success.
Of course, Honda's Red Bull days and Mercedes' 2010s domination would suggest this is correct, but McLaren proved otherwise last year. Nonetheless, Honda demonstrated their F1 ability by powering Red Bull to titles. They could do this with Aston Martin, too.
These are encouraging signs for the team's fans. Yet one constant elephant in the room remains. Stroll and, to a lesser degree, Alonso are the contracted drivers. As revered as he may be for his past, Alonso's titles are now two decades old and aren't even in living memory for some drivers on the grid. His past is incredible, of course, but so is Michael Jordan's. Would an NBA coach have been desperate to sign 'His Airness' in his mid-40s?
Stroll's talents, meanwhile, seem to plateau below the level needed for a title charge. With Oscar Piastri and George Russell improving year-on-year, there's never the same excitement or growth shown for the Canadian who will enter his 10th season next year. Even with the copycat cars that propelled his team to the front, Stroll has never finished a season higher than P10.
Aston Martin might turn a corner in 2026, and the ingredients are there for the team to improve. At some point, though, there needs to be serious questions about the quality of those behind the wheel.
Even if Alonso still has the ability of his 2005 self, Red Bull lost the title last year because only one driver could challenge the top. As Aston Martin's dream is to be taken seriously with new facilities, aerodynamics, and engine partners, they also need two drivers to match.
